Buy Now or Wait When Rates Go Up? Piedmont Triad Market Update

Every time mortgage rates jump, I get the same question from almost everyone: should I buy a house when rates are this high, or should I wait? Here's an answer built to hold up whether you read it the week I recorded the video or a couple of years from now — for buyers in Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point and the towns around them.

Here's why I don't love how the question usually gets asked. "Now or wait" treats the whole country like one housing market, and it isn't. What's happening in Austin or Phoenix or South Florida has very little to do with a street in Irving Park or Ardmore or Emerywood. The Triad has its own supply, its own buyers, its own pace. So the honest answer starts with local numbers, then gets personal — because the right move for a family relocating here with a job start date differs from the right move for someone across town who'd like a bigger yard.

One thing up front: I'm not a lender or an attorney. Anything about your specific loan or contract goes to your lender and your closing attorney. What I can give you is the local market and what I see on the ground every week.

The numbers, and where rates have been over fifty years

As I recorded this, Freddie Mac's weekly survey (week of October 1) put the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.28 percent — up a quarter point from the prior week (7.03) and almost a full point above the same week a year earlier (6.34). The 15-year was at 6.60.

Context matters more than the headline. Freddie Mac's survey goes back to the early seventies, and the annual averages (via Bankrate) tell the story: 1981, 16.64 percent for the year, with monthly readings above 18. 1990, just under 10. 2000, about 8. 2006, about 6.5. 2012, under 4. 2019, just over 4. The record weekly low, 2.65 percent, came in January 2021; by 2023 the annual average was back near 7. A rate in the sevens is unusual only compared with the last decade. Across fifty years it's close to normal — the twos and threes were the outlier.

Now the local figures, from Redfin, for the three months ending in August, city limits only:

• Greensboro: median sale price $289,808, essentially flat year over year; 46 days on market, up from 34; 882 August sales, up 9.7 percent.
• Winston-Salem: median $287,810, up 0.6 percent; 40 days on market versus 35; 855 August sales, up 3.2 percent.
• High Point: median $271,071, down 3.2 percent; 38 days, up from 34; 347 August sales, down 5.3 percent.

Homes are still selling; they're just taking longer. Statewide, NC REALTORS' September report put North Carolina at 5.93 months of supply with inventory up 3.5 percent — what my business calls a balanced market.

And the long view, because people ask: per the FHFA House Price Index (Q2 report), North Carolina home prices are up about 339 percent since early 1991 and about 41 percent over five years; the Greensboro–High Point metro is up about 44 percent over five years and about 5 percent over one. Over long holds, values here have historically risen a great deal, through several rate cycles. History, not a forecast.

Your payment, and the 2-1 rate buy-down

One illustrative example — principal and interest only, no taxes, insurance or HOA; a way to think, not a quote. Say you're buying at $500,000 with 20 percent down, a $400,000 loan. At 7.28 percent, principal and interest runs about $2,737 a month. At last year's 6.34, about $2,486. The rate move costs roughly $250 a month.

Now a structure I talk through with many buyers: a temporary 2-1 rate buy-down. The seller — or sometimes the builder — pre-pays part of your interest at closing. Year one, your payment is calculated as if the rate were two points lower; year two, one point lower; from year three on, you pay the note rate you signed for. Your loan doesn't change; what changes is who covers part of the interest for two years.

On the same $400,000 loan at 7.28: year one runs at 5.28 percent, about $2,216 a month — roughly $520 less, about $6,200 for the year. Year two at 6.28, about $2,471 — roughly $265 less, about $3,200 for the year. About $9,400 over two years, and in a slower market usually a seller concession, not money out of your pocket.

Why I like it when rates are high: two years of breathing room while you settle in. If rates come down in that window, you and your lender can look at refinancing. If not, you've still paid less for two years, and the payment at the note rate is the one you qualified for — no surprise at year three. Two caveats: nobody can promise rates will fall, so this is a cushion, not a plan built on a refinance. And the 2-1 is one of a family of options — a temporary buy-down, a permanent buy-down (points paid at closing for a lower rate for the life of the loan), a different loan structure, or simply a lower price. Have your lender line them up side by side before you write the offer, so your agent negotiates for the right thing.

Rate vs. price: what you actually control

A higher rate means a higher payment. Here's what to hold onto: the rate is the one part of the deal you don't control, and the only part that isn't permanent. The price you pay is permanent. The house you pick is expensive to undo. The rate is attached to a loan, and loans can be replaced. I'm not telling you to count on that — nobody knows where rates go next — but it changes how you weigh the two sides.

• Price: when homes sit longer, the asking price is a starting point, not a finish line.
• Seller concessions: a seller whose home has been sitting will often contribute toward closing costs, and one of the best uses of that money is the buy-down above.
• Loan structure: there's more than one way to structure a mortgage, and the right one for a short stay differs from a long one. A good lender lays out options, not one rate.
• Timeline, and refinancing as an option: a refinance replaces your loan with a new one, usually to lower the rate. It costs money — closing costs again — and lenders talk about a break-even. Nobody should buy counting on it, but the longer you plan to own, the more the option is worth. On a short stay the math is tighter, and waiting can be right.
• New construction: Triad builders have their own ways to make a payment work and are motivated to move completed homes. If a new build is on your list, ask what they're offering.

When someone tells me "I'm waiting for rates," they've put the one thing they can't control at the center and pushed everything they can control to the side.

Why rising rates favor buyers, and the long-term case for owning

Here's what rising rates typically do to a market. A higher payment knocks some buyers out and sidelines others, so demand cools. With fewer buyers competing, homes sit longer. Inventory builds. Price growth flattens or softens. Sellers who need to move negotiate — price reductions, closing-cost help, a rate buy-down. Contingent offers get taken seriously again. You saw it in the numbers above: homes sitting longer, more supply, prices flat. For the person buying at that moment, it's the most buyer-friendly stretch a market offers; the higher rate is the price of admission.

On the ground that means more to choose from — at the move-up and luxury end especially, where real alternatives change how you negotiate. It means time to do it right: North Carolina's due diligence period is one of the most buyer-friendly structures in the country, and in a slower market you can use it — full inspections, time for your attorney to review title, no backup offer breathing down your neck. And for relocating buyers, time to take a trip, see homes, and go home to think.

The longer view: a fixed payment doesn't rise the way rent does. Every payment builds equity through principal paydown. If values rise over a long hold, as they have here historically, you own the upside — history, not a promise. You're buying while fewer people compete. Time in the market has historically mattered more than timing it. And a home is a place to live, not only an asset. The tax side of owning goes to your tax professional; the loan side, your lender.

The flip side: if rates do fall, every buyer who's been waiting comes back, the homes that sat get absorbed, and the leverage disappears. Lower rate, more competition, firmer prices. That's not a prediction — it's how it has played out before, and it's the real trade-off in waiting.

The fair case for waiting

There are people I tell to wait. Buying a home because a video told you the market's good is a bad reason. Waiting is the smarter move when:

• Your timeline is short. If there's a real chance you'll move again within a couple of years, buying at a high rate and paying to sell soon after is a tough combination. Transaction costs on both ends take time to recover.
• The payment is a stretch. If the number at today's rate only works with everything going right, it doesn't work. Nobody should be house-poor on the hope of a refinance.
• You're relocating and don't know the towns yet. The Triad is a region, not a city — three cities and a ring of smaller towns, each with its own feel, commute and price band. Some people land here, rent for six months to a year, learn which side of town fits, and then buy with confidence. That's not wasted money; that's tuition. I'd rather help you buy the right house a year from now than the wrong one next month.
• Your situation isn't settled: job stability, a current home that hasn't sold, savings not quite there. Prepare now, buy later.

And the honest version of "waiting for rates": if you genuinely can wait and you understand the trade — that a lower rate likely brings competition back with it — that's legitimate. What I push back on is waiting for a rate that would "feel" right, without a number in mind or a plan for what happens if it never shows up. Rates could go down. They could also go up. Fifty years of history show both directions are on the table, more than once.

Five questions to decide

• How long do you plan to be in this home? If "a long time," today's rate matters less than you think. If "I'm not sure," sit with that first.
• Does the payment at today's rate work — comfortably — with nothing going right? Not if you get the bonus. Not if rates drop. Today.
• What would you do if rates fell after you bought? If the answer is "talk to my lender about replacing the loan," you've made peace with the rate not being permanent.
• What would you do if rates rose after you waited? If the answer is "I'd be priced out of what I want," waiting carries a risk you may not have been counting.
• What do you actually want? A bigger yard, a shorter commute, a school district you've already picked, a workshop. If the home that gives you that is on the market today, in conditions where you can negotiate for it, that's very different from browsing because the headlines said to.

What I see on the ground in a market like this one — opinion, not data: homes priced right still move. Homes priced for a hotter market are sitting, and that's where the deals are. Sellers who've already bought their next home are motivated in a way the listing won't tell you — your agent should be asking. And at the upper end — land, a real custom build, a view — when rates are high there are more of them available at once and fewer buyers for them, which is exactly the setup you want if that's what you're shopping for. For relocating buyers: get the lender conversation done before you plan your first trip, decide on your towns before you decide on a house, and build in one more trip than you think you need.

Summary

When rates are high, the payment is real money every month. But high rates bring a market where homes take longer to sell, inventory builds, and buyers have room to negotiate on price, concessions and terms. If you plan to be here a while, the payment works comfortably today, and the home you want is available, waiting for a rate you can't predict is a hope, not a strategy — buy the house, treat the loan as something you can revisit with your lender, and use the leverage the market hands you. If your timeline is short, the payment is a stretch, or you're new to the area, waiting or renting first can be exactly right. There's no prize for buying fast and no prize for waiting. The prize is the right house, on terms you can live with, for as long as you plan to live there.

Sources shown in the video: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week of Oct 1) and annual averages via Bankrate; FHFA House Price Index, Q2 report; Redfin city housing-market data, three months ending August; NC REALTORS Market Data, September report. The payment and buy-down examples are illustrative only — your lender will give you real numbers. Nothing here is legal or lending advice. If your home is currently listed with another firm, this is not a solicitation of that listing.